The Florida Correction Deepens While Midwest Quietly Appreciates
The divergence between regional markets has sharpened considerably. Florida metros are experiencing both sustained price declines and elevated discounting: North Port is down 6.7% year-over-year with 30.1% of listings cut, while Cape Coral sits at negative 8.1% with 28.1% price cuts. These aren't modest adjustments. Meanwhile, Illinois and upstate New York are posting gains of 8-9% annually in metros like Rockford and Peoria, where valuations remain under $225,000.
The pattern suggests a recalibration around affordability anchors. Sellers in overheated coastal markets priced for 2021-2022 conditions are now competing aggressively. Phoenix's 33.8% price cut rate, despite modest year-over-year decline, indicates sustained inventory pressure in formerly hot Sun Belt markets. By contrast, lower-priced Rust Belt metros are capturing migration flows without the inventory distress, suggesting price equilibrium at lower absolute levels.
High price cuts alongside marginal year-over-year moves in places like Ogden (+2.3% ZHVI, 30.1% cuts) reveal a market where nominal appreciation masks persistent negotiation dynamics. Watch whether the Midwest gain trajectory sustains through Q3 and whether Florida's correction rate finally moderates or accelerates further.